The Astonishing Scoring Streak Drives Aston Villa's Unlikely Title Charge
It was eight weeks prior when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six games, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to answer. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
Per the data, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.